Home » England vs Australia The Ashes 5th Test Day 1 Odds & Prediction
Written By: Ben Crawley

England’s Ashes campaign received a timely boost in the 4th Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, where they secured a four-wicket victory to halt Australia’s run of dominance. The win reduced Australia’s series lead to 3–1 and injected fresh momentum into the contest.

With the series now moving to Sydney for the 5th Test, attention turns to whether England can build on their Melbourne success. Betting markets still lean towards Australia on home conditions, but the tightened odds suggest a more competitive final Test as the Ashes reaches its conclusion.

Winning & Toss Odds For The Ashes 2025-26 5th Test Match

Australia entered the 4th Ashes Test at the MCG as favourites after their Adelaide win, but England responded with a four-wicket victory to shift the momentum. With the series now at 3–1, focus turns to the 5th Test, where early odds reflect a tighter contest at the SCG.

5th Test Match Odds (Early Markets)

BookmakerAustralia WinEngland WinDraw
Bet3651.422.753.05
William Hill1.442.703.00
Betway1.402.803.15
Betfred1.432.723.02
Parimatch1.412.682.95

Disclaimer: Odds are indicative and subject to change. Weather conditions, team selections, and pitch reports can significantly influence markets closer to the start of play.

Australia continue to lead the early markets, with win odds trading in the 1.40–1.44 range across major bookmakers. The draw is priced between 2.95 and 3.15, indicating expectations of a competitive contest, while England are available in the 2.68–2.80 bracket following recent results.

Market movement is expected once play begins, with the toss and the opening sessions likely to influence prices as conditions and early momentum become clearer.

5th Test Match Details Of The Ashes 2025–26

The fourth Ashes Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground delivered a shift in momentum, with England producing a strong response to secure a four-wicket win in the Boxing Day clash. The MCG once again lived up to its reputation for balanced contests, rewarding discipline with both bat and ball.

With the series now moving to Sydney for the 5th Test, Australia will look to regroup and reassert control, while England aim to carry their Melbourne confidence into the final match of the Ashes.

Source: Cricket Australia
AspectDetails
MatchAUS vs ENG, 5th Test
SeriesThe Ashes, 2025–26
DateSunday, January 4, 2026
Time05:00 AM IST / 11:30 PM GMT / 10:30 AM Local
VenueSydney Cricket Ground, Sydney

Match Summary– AUS vs ENG, 4th Test

England showed grit and tactical clarity to claim the 4th Test, overcoming a tricky chase after dominating with the ball. Josh Tongue set the tone early, dismantling Australia’s top order and finishing with seven wickets in the match.

Australia’s first innings ended at 152, with England’s seamers maintaining relentless pressure. England struggled in reply but stayed in the contest through Harry Brook’s fluent 41. The bowlers once again stepped up in the third innings, restricting Australia to 132.

England’s chase was calm and controlled. Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett provided momentum at the top, while Jacob Bethell anchored the innings to guide England home by four wickets.

4th Test – Match Highlights

AspectDetails
MatchAustralia vs England, 4th Test
ResultEngland won by 4 wickets
Australia 1st Innings152 all out
England 1st Innings110 all out
Australia 2nd Innings132 all out
Target174
Key Batter (ENG)Jacob Bethell – 40
Standout BowlerJosh Tongue – 7 wickets
Supporting CastCrawley 37, Duckett 34
Player of the MatchJosh Tongue

Match Summary– AUS vs ENG, 3rd Test

England showed resilience on the final day in Adelaide but ultimately fell short as Australia secured an 82-run victory in the third Ashes Test. Despite strong individual efforts, England were unable to overhaul a challenging fourth-innings target.

Australia’s first-innings 371, built around Alex Carey’s composed 106, gave them control early on. England responded with 286, with Ben Stokes leading from the front. Travis Head then produced a commanding 170 in Australia’s second innings, stretching the lead beyond reach.

Chasing 435, England fought hard on Day 4. Zak Crawley’s 85 and Jamie Smith’s 60 kept hopes alive, but consistent breakthroughs from Cummins, Starc, and Lyon ensured Australia closed out the match.

3rd Test – Match Highlights

AspectDetails
MatchAustralia vs England, 3rd Test, Adelaide
ResultAustralia won by 82 runs
Australia 1st Innings371 all out
England 1st Innings286 all out
Australia 2nd Innings349 all out
England 2nd Innings352 all out
Top Batter (AUS)Travis Head – 170
Top Batter (ENG)Zak Crawley – 85
Key Bowler (AUS)Pat Cummins – 3/48
Player of the MatchAlex Carey
Series StatusAustralia lead 3-0

England’s fourth-innings effort showed character, but Australia’s ability to apply pressure at key moments made the difference.

Match Summary – AUS vs ENG, 2nd Test

Australia delivered a dominant performance in the 2nd Ashes Test at The Gabba, securing an emphatic eight-wicket win to take a commanding 2–0 series lead. England posted 334 in the first innings, anchored by Joe Root’s superb 138, but Mitchell Starc’s destructive 6-wicket haul kept Australia firmly in control.

Australia’s reply was strong and steady as Weatherald (72), Labuschagne (65), Smith (61), Carey (63), and Starc’s crucial 77 pushed the total to 511, giving the hosts a hefty lead. England’s second innings faltered again, bowled out for 241, with Michael Neser starring with 5/42 and Starc adding two more. Chasing just 69, Australia wrapped up victory at 69/2 inside 10 overs, sealing another comprehensive result.
Mitchell Starc was named Player of the Match for his outstanding all-round display.

2nd Test – Match Highlights

AspectDetails
MatchAustralia vs England, 2nd Test, The Gabba
ResultAustralia won by 8 wickets
England 1st Innings334 all out
Australia 1st Innings511 all out
England 2nd Innings241 all out
Australia 2nd Innings69/2 (chased in 10 overs)
Top Batter (Match)Joe Root – 138 (206)
Best Support (AUS)Starc – 77 (141) • Weatherald – 72 (78)
Top Bowler (AUS)Mitchell Starc – 6/75 & 2/64
Key BreakthroughsStarc removes Duckett & Pope early; Neser 5/42 in 2nd innings
Turning PointEngland collapse from 176/3 → 334 & 224/7 → 241
Player of the MatchMitchell Starc
Series StatusAustralia lead 2–0

Match Summary – AUS vs ENG, 1st Test

Australia opened the Ashes 2025–26 series in ruthless fashion at Perth Stadium, defeating England by eight wickets to take a 1–0 lead. England struggled from the outset, bowled out for 172 in the first innings despite counterattacking efforts from Pope (46) and Brook (52). Mitchell Starc was unplayable with the new ball and throughout, taking a sensational 7-for to dismantle England’s batting lineup.

Australia replied with 132, keeping the match tight as England’s bowlers fought hard, but England’s second innings collapse to 164 — again triggered by Starc and the short-ball plans executed by Doggett and Boland — left the visitors with no control. Chasing a modest target of 205, Australia cruised to 205/2, led confidently by their top order to wrap up the match inside four days.

Starc was named Player of the Match for his match-winning spell of 7 wickets, setting the tone for Australia’s dominance in the series opener.

1st Test – Match Highlights

AspectDetails
MatchAustralia vs England, 1st Test, Perth Stadium
ResultAustralia won by 8 wickets
England 1st Innings172 all out
Australia 1st Innings132 all out
England 2nd Innings164 all out
Australia 2nd Innings205/2 (chased comfortably)
Top Batter (ENG)Harry Brook – 52 (61)
Best Support (ENG)Ollie Pope – 46 (58)
Top Bowler (AUS)Mitchell Starc – 7/37 (1st inns)
Additional BreakthroughsDoggett removes Brook; Boland tightens middle-order pressure
Turning PointEngland collapse 3/2 → 172 and 113/5 → 164 in 2nd innings
Player of the MatchMitchell Starc
Series StatusAustralia lead 1–0

The Ashes 2025-26 5th Test Playing XI

Here are the expected playing XI of both teams –

England (Playing XI): Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes(c), Jamie Smith(w), Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse, Jofra Archer

Australia (Playing XI): Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith(c), Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Alex Carey(w), Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Brendan Doggett

The Ashes 2025–26 5th Test: Weather Report (Sydney)

Sydney in early January usually offers warm summer conditions that are well suited to red-ball Test cricket. Temperatures tend to stay steady across the day, while coastal weather can occasionally bring light cloud cover, offering brief assistance to seamers during the morning sessions.

MetricReport
Temperature23°C to 29°C
WeatherMostly clear with some cloud
PrecipitationLow chance of rain
Humidity55% to 65%
WindLight coastal breeze, 10–18 km/h

Overall, weather interruptions are unlikely across the Test. While early sessions may offer some movement for fast bowlers, conditions should remain stable enough to allow uninterrupted play for most of the match.

The Ashes 2025–26 5th Test: Pitch Report (Sydney)

The Sydney Cricket Ground traditionally provides a surface that changes character as the Test progresses. While fast bowlers can find movement early, the pitch tends to slow down and bring spinners into the game sooner than at venues like Melbourne.

MetricReport
BehaviourTrue bounce early, slows and takes turn later
Batting AssistanceGood once batters are set, especially Days 2–3
Bowling AssistanceSeam early; spin becomes influential from Day 3 onward
Red Ball FactorSwing and seam early with the new ball
Historic Avg 1st Inns~300–320 runs
Toss/PreferenceBat first to control the game early

As footmarks develop outside the right-hander’s off stump, spinners often play a decisive role late in the match. Teams that manage the early seam movement and adapt to increasing turn tend to perform well at the SCG.

The Ashes England vs Australia – Head-to-Head Stats

Overall, through history, Australia boasts 155 victories against England, who have 113 with 97 draws. England have not won a Test in Australia since 2011.

Matches365
Australia wins155
England wins113
Draws97

In the last 10 years in all locations, Tests between the two sides, England have seven wins to Australia’s 14, with four draws.

Some Other Head-to-Head Stats

These numbers tell stories of dominance across eras that shaped Test cricket itself.

  • Highest total: England – 903/7 dec, Australia – 758/8 dec
  • Lowest total: England – 45, Australia – 36
  • Most runs (Australia): Don Bradman (5028), Allan Border (3548)
  • Most runs (England): Jack Hobbs (3636), David Gower (3269)
  • Most wickets (Australia): Shane Warne (195), Dennis Lillee (167)
  • Most wickets (England): Stuart Broad (153), Ian Botham (148)

Bradman averaged 89.78 across 37 Ashes Tests between 1928 and 1948, a figure that remains untouchable. Warne’s 195 wickets came from his ability to spin the ball both ways on any surface.

English bowlers historically struggled in the Australian heat, where pitches favoured pace and bounce over swing. The numbers reveal how Australian conditions suit their players, while England must adapt methods learned on green English wickets.

Players To Watch In The Ashes 2025-26

Six players emerge as critical to their teams after Perth exposed batting frailties and pace dominance. Form and fitness separate contenders from passengers heading into Brisbane.

1. Mitchell Starc (Australia) – The veteran claimed 10 wickets at Perth for his third match haul of that scale in Tests. Starc took 7-58 in England’s first innings and 3-55 in their second, dismantling both batting efforts. Australia leans heavily on him again, with Hazlewood still out and Cummins uncertain.

2. Travis Head (Australia) – Head promoted to open and smashed 123 off 83 balls with 16 fours and four sixes, the second fastest Ashes century ever. His aggressive approach changed the match in 28 overs. Whether he opens again or returns to number five depends on Khawaja’s back recovery.

3. Zak Crawley (England) – The opener bagged a pair of first-over ducks at Perth, both dismissed by Starc, marking England’s first Ashes pair this century. Coach Brendon McCullum backs him despite the failures. Crawley needs runs immediately to silence critics questioning his place.

4. Harry Brook (England) – Vice-captain managed just 52 runs across two innings at Perth before falling cheaply in the second. Brook averages over 60 at the Gabba from previous visits but faces his toughest examination under lights against the pink ball on a bouncy track.

5. Scott Boland (Australia) – Went for 0-62 in Perth’s first innings but found his length the second time around with 4-33  to trigger England’s collapse. The Victorian holds his spot with Hazlewood sidelined and Cummins doubtful. Brisbane conditions suit his precise line and length bowling.

Usman Khawaja suffered back spasms at Perth and couldn’t open in either innings , making him doubtful for Brisbane. Josh Hazlewood remains unavailable with his hamstring problem and is unlikely to feature. 

England retain the same squad with McCullum backing his methods despite the two-day defeat. If Cummins returns fit, debutant Brendan Doggett likely makes way despite his five wickets on debut.

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Conclusion: England Regain Momentum Heading Into The Final Test

England’s Ashes campaign received a much-needed lift in the 4th Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, where a composed four-wicket victory halted Australia’s run of dominance. After trailing earlier in the series, England’s disciplined bowling and controlled chase brought the scoreline back to 3–1 and reopened the contest.

With the series now moving to Sydney for the 5th Test, England will look to build on their Melbourne performance and finish strongly. Betting markets still favour Australia on home conditions, but England’s response at the MCG has set up a more competitive and closely watched finale to the Ashes series.

FAQs

When was the first day-night Test match played?

The first day-night Test took place between Australia and New Zealand at Adelaide Oval on November 27, 2015. Australia won by three wickets on day three.

Why does the pink ball swing more than the red ball?

The pink ball has an extra lacquer coating, which maintains shine longer, causing more lateral movement in the air for extended overs. The smoother surface also makes it skid faster off the pitch.

What time does play start in day-night Tests?

Play begins at 2 pm local time and extends until around 9 pm. The twilight period between 5:30pm and 7pm presents the toughest batting conditions under fading natural light.

Has England ever won at the Gabba?

England have won just four of 22 Tests in Brisbane, with their most recent victory coming in 1986-87. Australia has won seven of the last nine Ashes Tests there.

About the Author

Hey, I am a cricket writer based in London with over 7 years of experience covering everything from county championships to international showdowns. I bring a sharp eye for detail and a passion for storytelling, highlighting England’s rising stars and memorable match moments. At DurhamCricket, I deliver weekly coverage that's honest, insightful, and easy to follow—perfect for fans who live and breathe the game.

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