Pakistan’s road to the semi finals in the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 has come down to pure mathematics. After England defeated New Zealand in the Super Eight clash, the qualification scenario in Group 2 has become very clear. Pakistan not only needs to beat Sri Lanka, but they must win by a huge margin to move ahead on net run rate. It is now a high-pressure situation where every run and every over will matter.
Super 8 Group 2 Points Table After ENG vs NZ
After England’s win over New Zealand, the Group 2 standings clearly show how tight the race has become for the second semi final spot. England have qualified with six points, while Pakistan remain in third place with just one point and a negative net run rate.
| Position | Team | P | W | L | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ENG (Q) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +1.096 |
| 2 | NZ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1.390 |
| 3 | PAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -0.461 |
| 4 | SL (E) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2.800 |
With only one match left, Pakistan must now depend on a big margin victory against Sri Lanka to move ahead in the standings.
Scenario 1: Pakistan Must Win by 64 Runs if Batting First
England’s four wicket win over New Zealand in Colombo confirmed their place in the semi finals with three wins from three matches. New Zealand now have three points and a strong net run rate of 1.390. Pakistan, meanwhile, have just one point from two matches and a net run rate of minus 0.461.
Because of this difference, Pakistan cannot qualify with a narrow victory. If they bat first against Sri Lanka, they must win by at least 64 runs to move ahead of New Zealand on net run rate.
For example, if Pakistan score 170, they must restrict Sri Lanka to 106 or below. Any smaller margin will not be enough to qualify. This scenario requires Pakistan’s bowlers to deliver a dominant performance after putting up a big total on the board.
Scenario 2: Pakistan Must Chase Target in 13.1 Overs
If Pakistan bowl first and chase a target set by Sri Lanka, the task becomes even tougher. To improve their net run rate above New Zealand’s, Pakistan must complete the chase in around 13.1 overs.
This means the batting unit has to attack from the very beginning. There is no room for a slow start or middle over slowdown. Even a successful chase in 15 or 16 overs may not be enough.
Sri Lanka are already out of the semi final race, but they can still impact which team joins England in the last four. For Pakistan, this match is like a knockout. Whether defending a big total or chasing quickly, they must dominate from start to finish to keep their T20 World Cup 2026 hopes alive.
